Dynamic Freeway Travel Time Prediction Using Probe Vehicle Data: Link-based vs. Path-based

Short-term travel time prediction is very important to the real time travelers’ information and route guidance system. Various methodologies have been developed for dynamic travel time prediction. However, most of the existing studies presume that path travel time is the simple addition of travel times on the consisting links. Through simulation, it is shown that, under recurrent traffic condition, direct measuring of path based (or movement based) travel time rather than link based travel times could generate a more accurate prediction. Factors that would have an impact on the prediction accuracy are analyzed.